How far the result can be pushed before it flips
Four scenarios side by side, the truth-or-lie map over conviction probability and trial duration, and which assumption moves the plea rate most.
Scenarios
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Inputs are set on the Simulator page. This page reads the current scenario; the scenario buttons above switch presets here too.
The four scenarios side by side
Each column is one preset run in full. The current scenario, if it differs from all four, appears as a fifth column.
Where the equilibrium flips: conviction probability against trial duration
Share of guilty accused on bail who plead, across the (pG, T) plane with every other input as set. The marker is the current scenario. Crimson is the lie region; gold is the truth region.
Which assumption matters most
Each input moved 25% either way from its current value (discount factor and guilt share within plausible bounds). Two readings: the margin by which truth beats delay for the median accused, which always moves, and the plea rate, which only moves near the flip point.